A Treatise of Human Nature · Chapter
Section XI: Of the Probability of Chances explained
Hume examines the nature of probability, distinguishing it from knowledge and proofs.
What happens
Hume examines the nature of probability, distinguishing it from knowledge and proofs. He argues that chance is merely the negation of a cause, leaving the mind indifferent. A superior combination of chances, such as a die with more sides marked one way, produces belief through the union of impulses from multiple equal chances, not through demonstration or probability. This belief is a form of vivacity in the idea, derived from custom and habit.
Themes in this chapter
Custom and General Rules
Hume explains that belief in probable outcomes arises from custom and habit, as the mind is influenced by repeated experiences of similar events.
Skepticism About the External World
Hume's analysis of chance and probability underscores the limits of human knowledge, as we cannot have certainty about future events, only probabilistic expectations.
Characters to notice
- David Hume
Author and narrator, presenting his theory of probability and belief.
Key passages
“The vivacity of the idea is always proportionate to the degrees of the impulse or tendency to the transition; and belief is the same with the vivacity of the idea, according to the precedent doctrine.”
The strength of belief is directly related to the force of the mental transition, and belief itself is just the liveliness of the idea.
Hume connects belief to the vivacity of ideas, a key principle in his theory of mind.
“A perfect and total indifference is essential to chance, and one total indifference can never in itself be either superior or inferior to another.”
Chance requires complete indifference, and one state of indifference cannot be better or worse than another.
Hume argues that chance is a negation of cause, and thus all chances are equal unless mixed with causes.