An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding · Chapter
Of Probability explained
Hume argues that probability arises from a superiority of chances on one side, and that belief is a firmer conception of an object produced by the concurrence of multiple views in the imagination.
What happens
Hume argues that probability arises from a superiority of chances on one side, and that belief is a firmer conception of an object produced by the concurrence of multiple views in the imagination. He extends this analysis from games of chance to the probability of causes, where past uniformity or frequency guides our expectations.
Themes in this chapter
Custom and Habit as Guides
Hume emphasizes that custom determines our transfer of past experience to future expectations, forming the basis of probability.
Skepticism and the Limits of Human Understanding
Hume highlights the difficulty of accounting for belief and probability within received philosophical systems, suggesting limits to rational explanation.
Characters to notice
- Narrator
The narrator presents the analysis of probability and belief, reflecting on the mind's operations.
Key passages
“Though there be no such thing as Chance in the world; our ignorance of the real cause of any event has the same influence on the understanding, and begets a like species of belief or opinion.”
Even though chance does not truly exist, our lack of knowledge about an event's true cause produces a similar effect on the mind, generating belief or opinion.
Hume denies objective chance, attributing probability to human ignorance.
“This concurrence of several views in one particular event begets immediately, by an inexplicable contrivance of nature, the sentiment of belief, and gives that event the advantage over its antagonist, which is supported by a smaller number of views, and recurs less frequently to the mind.”
When multiple mental perspectives converge on a single outcome, nature inexplicably produces a feeling of belief, favoring that outcome over alternatives that appear less often.
Hume describes belief as a natural sentiment arising from the frequency of mental representations.
“Being determined by custom to transfer the past to the future, in all our inferences; where the past has been entirely regular and uniform, we expect the event with the greatest assurance, and leave no room for any contrary supposition.”
Custom compels us to project past patterns onto the future; when the past has been perfectly consistent, we expect the same outcome with complete confidence, dismissing any alternative.
Hume grounds inductive inference in custom, not reason.